a guess-the-candies contest as a bayesian update; the crowd, a signal from someone who knew, and why i mistook precision for accuracy
raphael mukondiwa
cs + econ @ duke · swe intern @ icapital; prev. quant dev intern @ foghnan trading; prev swe intern @ microsoft
class of 2027 · interested in distributed systems, market microstructure, and low-latency engineering · building in c++, python, c#, and java.
writing
2026-06-25
pricing the luck out of a candy jar
2026-04-28
retail attention as a volatility predictor and momentum amplifier
wikipedia pageviews + wallstreetbets volume as a garch-beating vol signal; attention×trend interaction drives the strategy
2026-04-15
our thesis was perfect. then iran got bombed.
trading an iron butterfly on s&p 500 futures through a war; peak +$61k, final −$31k, and six rules i'd write before the next trade
projects
systems
contributing to pjrmi — d. e. shaw's python-java rpc bridge
slice indexing was crashing the jvm connection; tracing the call stack first made the fix obvious
systems
allocator lab
custom memory allocator implementations benchmarked against malloc
markets
bitcoin sentiment markov chain
5-state markov chain over btc sentiment to model 25+ state transition strategies